Oasis Innovation Hub for Catastrophe
and Climate Extremes Risk Assessment

WP2.2.1: Typhoon Climate Services

Objectives

  1. We will create a new catalogue of historical typhoon events that includes economically relevant physical variables.
  2. We will create synthetic events sets that are suitable for catastrophe modelling in the insurance sector in line with the OASIS LMF standards
  3. Long-range seasonal forecasts of landfalling typhoons will be done that meet insurers needs on timelines, variables and uncertainty presentation.

Description

Typhoons cause serious harm and enormous economic loss. Liu et al. (2014) estimated that in China alone a quarter of a billion people are affected by typhoons. In 2006 typhoons caused about 1,600 deaths and the economic loss reached US$12 billion. In the Philippines Typhoon Haiyan has been estimated to cause the deaths of 6200 and an economic damage of US$14 billion of which only US$2 billion was insured. The Asia Pacific is experiencing rapid economic growth with ever more risk exposure. The markets are liberalizing at the same time so that demand for insurance and risk assessment is also accelerating. Insurance and others need access to new climate services to meet this demand.

Achievements

A New Typhoon Event Generator

We have developed a new typhoon event generator that simulates landfall in China. The key innovation is that it does not consider tracks and the offshore history, but directly focusses on properties at landfall. This parametric model takes user inputs, including longitude, and latitude, wind intensity threshold and optionally the Western North Pacific 500 hPa geopotential anomaly. It produces an arbitrarily long synthetic landfall event set comprising events exceeding the intensity threshold at the stated location, as well as the wind profile and rainfall. The generator can produce events outside of the range of sample data (see Figure 1). The model was fitted to and tested against the China Landfall Catalogue available on the OASIS Hub.

In 2020 it was nominated by the industry for best new research. (http://www.catinsight.co.uk/awards).

View the model here: https://oasishub.co/tool/tropical-cyclone-landfall-parametric-synthetic-event-generator

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Figure 1. Comparison of synthetic event set and catalogue event set of equal length (68 years). Vmax (m/s) is shown by colour, R18 (km) is shown by the radius.

Seasonal Forecast

Risk planning can be improved by estimates of seasonal mean activity months ahead. We have developed a new seasonal forecasting system of typhoons. The forecast is updated monthly throughout the year. It makes predictions of China landfall which no other public system currently offers. The forecast is freely available on the Oasis Hub. Seasonal Typhoon Forecast

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