Oasis Innovation Hub for Catastrophe
and Climate Extremes Risk Assessment

WP2.2.1: Typhoon Climate Services

Cyclone

Objectives

  1. We will create a new catalogue of historical typhoon events that includes economically relevant physical variables.
  2. We will create synthetic events sets that are suitable for catastrophe modelling in the insurance sector in line with the OASIS LMF standards
  3. Long-range seasonal forecasts of landfalling typhoons will be done that meet insurers needs on timelines, variables and uncertainty presentation.

Description

Typhoons cause serious harm and enormous economic loss. Liu et al. (2014) estimated that in China alone a quarter of a billion people are affected by typhoons. In 2006 typhoons caused about 1,600 deaths and the economic loss reached US$12 billion. In the Philippines Typhoon Haiyan has been estimated to cause the deaths of 6200 and an economic damage of US$14 billion of which only US$2 billion was insured. The Asia Pacific is experiencing rapid economic growth with ever more risk exposure. The markets are liberalizing at the same time so that demand for insurance and risk assessment is also accelerating.  Insurance and others need access to new climate services to meet this demand.

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