In Work Package (WP) 2.1.2 vulnerability functions and exposure data will be tailored to the specific needs of insurers as our principle co-design partners to enable evidence-based risk transfer and informed underwriting of risk. Based on stakeholder needs identified jointly with WP2.1.1 and dedicated data collection we will innovate a new set of vulnerability functions for fluvial and pluvial flood loss to the residential and commercial sectors compliant with OASIS LMF standards and demonstrate their added value to stakeholders in the Danube basin. We will also improve the availability and deployment of operational tools for assessing future climate risks with a focus on hazard consequences in terms of economic loss and the underlying approaches to quantify vulnerability and exposure.
As a second focus, the potential for updating vulnerability functions and exposure data to cover other hazards and other sectors and regions like for instance to assist municipalities and the industry to adapt to future climate and disaster resilience planning will be demonstrated in cooperation with the Association of Climate Friendly Municipalities and other collaborators within the infrastructural planning and large-scale investment demonstration cases undertaken in WP2.1.1 and WP2.1.3.This work package contributes the ‘Risk Module’ to the Future Danube multi-hazard multi risk model of WP2.1 (Future Danube) and supports other demonstrators with the design of vulnerability functions.
Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the risk equation. The assessment of potential losses, the pricing of policies and the estimation of reinsurance needs are very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model including the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed assets as well as the susceptibility of elements at risk. Reliability is a basic prerequisite for the practical usefulness of loss estimation and risk assessment outcomes since this information underpin regulatory requirements and business decisions in the insurance industry as well as prioritization and H2020_Insurance39investment decisions in mitigation and adaptation planning in the public and private sectors. Transparency of modelling approaches as well as insight into the underlying data and assumptions are key to draw robust conclusions. Further, the capability of models to reliably estimate losses depends largely on the adequate usage of location specific information which needs to be incorporated into the vulnerability functions. Quantification of predictive uncertainty, validation of model performance, and updating vulnerability models with local information are crucial aspects addressed in WP2.1.2 and represent a strong offer for advanced services to the insurance industry.In WP2.1.2 we provide innovative customized vulnerability functions for fluvial and pluvial flood loss to the residential andcommercial sector and make them applicable within the OASIS LMF standard. These specific vulnerability models relate the intensityof the hazard as for instance maximum inundation depth from fluvial flooding or maximum precipitation intensity from torrential rain to the damage of objects at risk and, in combination with exposure data, provide quantitative estimates of expected economic losses. The compilation of exposure data will resort to available European data sets (e.g. BEAM) and draw on data available from co-design partners. All data will be stored in an exposure database which will be designed and implemented in close cooperation with the co-design partners from the insurance industry. Hazard intensity information is provided by the hazard module of WP2.1.1.
Probabilistic vulnerability functions
In the H2020 Insurance project probabilistic vulnerability functions for fluvial and pluvial floods were developed and implemented in the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework (figure 1). Losses for residential and commercial buildings caused by fluvial floods and pluvial flood loss for residential buildings can now be estimated. Furthermore, vulnerability functions were validated in case studies in different European countries and the required data has been compiled and processed to enable application in the Future Danube Model chain.
Damage data collection tool
An online tool for the collection of empirical data on flood losses and influencing factors has been developed in multiple languages. We tested it for pluvial flood events in Budapest and all of Hungary in cooperation with project partner Klimabárat and Hungarian stakeholders. The tool is based on online questionnaires and collects detailed information from loss-affected people about damage to buildings, building characteristics, hazard impacts and many loss influencing factors. Damage data collected with the tool can be used to develop and validate flood loss models.
An exposure database which includes data collected via the damage data collection tool and exposure data for the Danube region was developed. The included data sets can be used for flood loss estimation in the Danube region and all of Europe with the probabilistic flood loss models developed by GFZ.