Oasis Innovation Hub for Catastrophe
and Climate Extremes Risk Assessment

WP2.1.1: Danube regional multi-hazard, multi-risk model

Danube City View


Work Package (WP) 2.1.1 (Future Danube), we will demonstrate the added value of climate services for the insurance sector and beyond by applying a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region (the Future Danube Model), tailored to end-users with a focus on insurers, in order to help them to calculate adequate levels of capital and adaptation measures enabling them to survive under changing climate conditions.

We will concentrate on hazards like floods, droughts, storms and heatwaves under current and climate change conditions, which will be linked to vulnerability functions as developed in WP 2.1.2 to build up a full-scale catastrophe model for the Danube basin, with a catchment area of 817,000 km2and more than 83 million inhabitants.

A second focus will be to demonstrate the usefulness of the Future Danube Model for other sectors, for example, to support adaptation decision making in the public, industrial, finance and investment sectors (diversification of the methodology), working togetherwith the Association of Climate Friendly Municipalities located in the Danube basin, and by assessing the resilience of a larger infrastructure development using the example of the proposed wastewater treatment plant of Novi Sad, Serbia, which is on the list of the Serbian investment plan for the EU Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA II). The latter is done in collaboration with WP2.1.3.


The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions.

Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. It is co-designed with end-users from the insurance (Generali, Uniqua, Allianz, the German Insurance Association and RISKCONSULT (VIG Group)) and public sectors (Municipality of Budapest, the Budapest Water Works and Budapest Sewage Works, and the Association of Climate Friendly Municipalities located in the Danube basin).

The novelty of our approach, creating an added value e.g. as compared to existing work in the region, is that we will not only provide local hazard information under current conditions (where this information is often still not available in many especially downstream regions of the basin) but also to account for the future climate change impacts on these hazards and what this means for the insurance sector.The entire model suite is compliant with the OASIS LMF standard and has been readily implemented for the entire Danube basin and tested in the German and Hungarian parts of the catchment. The hazard modules for the entire Danube raised huge interest by theinsurance, public and industrial sectors, and are currently extended by the financial/ risk module (in collaboration with WP 2.1.2).

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