Oasis Innovation Hub for Catastrophe
and Climate Extremes Risk Assessment

Oasis Hub Webinar Series 2019 - #6: Using multi-hazard, multi-risk catastrophe models to assess the flood risk under current and future climate change – examples from the Danube River basin - Dr. Michel Wortmann, Dr.-Ing. Kai Schröter & Dr. Jelena Radonić

The 6th and final webinar of the Oasis Hub Community Webinar series was brought to you by Dr. Michel Wortmann, Post-doctoral researcher at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Dr.-Ing. Kai Schröter, Hydrologist from GFZ-Potsdam & Jelena Radonić, Associate Professor at the University of Novi Sad.

Topic: Using multi-hazard, multi-risk catastrophe models to assess the flood risk under current and future climate change – examples from the Danube River basin

A warmer climate is expected to lead to more extreme precipitation and locked-in weather patterns, generally resulting in a greater likelihood of flooding around the world. Flood risk assessments for the insurance sector and communities typically rely on long-term, historical observations and thus often fail to capture the increased risk under the current, warmer climate. We will explore how this may be overcome and how the open-source Oasis Loss Modelling Framework enables the use of cutting-edge scientific models in (re)insurance companies. As an example, the Future Danube Model (FDM) will be discussed, a catastrophe model compliant with both insurance industry standards and climate science best practices. In its core, it provides risk and damage information for fluvial flooding for the entire Danube Basin and pluvial flooding for selected cities in the Danube Basin for the past, present and future. A unique feature is the use of climate change scenarios to provide risk information for the present (2006-2035) and two future climate periods (2020-2049, 2070-2099), allowing analyses of risk with regards to the baseline period (1970-1999). The model was co-designed and co-validated in collaboration by the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), the German Centre for Geoscience (GFZ) and the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with partners from the insurance industry.

Panel:
Dr. Michel Wortmann, Post-doctoral Researcher
@ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany

Michel Wortmann is a post-doctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research focusing on the impacts of climate change on the reoccurrence of catastrophic flooding. He has gained significant experience in hydrological modelling. He received his Ph.D. in Hydrology from University College London, UK, in 2017.

Dr. -Ing. Kai Schröter, Senior Hydrologist @ GFZ-Potsdam, Germany
Kai is a staff member of the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, the national research center for Earth sciences. Research at the GFZ focuses on the geosphere within the highly complex System Earth with its further subsystems, its interacting subcycles, and its wide network of cause-and-effect chains.

Kai holds a Ph.D. in engineering sciences from TU Darmstadt/Section of Engineering Hydrology and Water Management (received 2008 with summa cum laude). Kai is a civil engineer with a focus on hydraulic engineering and water management. Kai gained practical experience as a consulting engineer at BWS Ltd. Hamburg, Germany from 2008 to 2012 and has broad practical experience in flood risk assessment, urban water management, and simulation of complex water systems.

Since 2012 Kai is a scientist at the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) in section Hydrology. He has more than 10 years of experience with research in the field of flood risk analysis, flood damage assessment, and management. His research as principal investigator at GFZ has been within a diversity of research projects geared around flood risk assessment using new data sources and novel methods for flood risk modeling. His research has a distinct component on innovation and application as well as tight cooperation with the (re-) insurance industry. He has (co-) authored 36 ISI listed peer-reviewed articles on flood risk and flood event analysis, multi-variate probabilistic flood damage modelling and natural hazards.

Dr. Jelena Radonić, Associate Professor & Chair of Environmental Engineering
@ Faculty of Technical Sciences at the University of Novi Sad, Serbia
Jelena is the Head of the Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Technical Sciences, at the University of Novi Sad. Since 2015, Jelena has been an Associate Professor of Environmental Engineering. Jelena has a strong background in research and environmental sciences, with a Ph.D. obtained in 2009 studying the 'Atmospheric transport and distribution modeling between solid and gaseous phases of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons'.

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